Focusing our lens on 2023, one image becomes clear: a global economy moving at multi-speeds, with some countries, companies and individuals more exposed to headwinds from high inflation and interest rates than others. This dynamic is creating a divergence in real (inflation-adjusted) economic growth. For Europe, we expect a decline in economic activity, while in the United States, we expect limited economic growth next year. At the same time, commodity exporters in the Middle East and some parts of emerging Asia may see moderate growth. Along with a divergence by country, we see a bifurcation by sector where experiences fare better than goods given the continued pent-up demand for travel and continual shifts in consumer preferences.
The Mastercard Economics Institute uses a multitude of data sets (public and proprietary) and models intended to estimate trends in economic activity. Our 2023 Economic Outlook explores the causes and effects shaping the speed and path of real economic growth:
- high rates & housing - housing-related spending as a share of goods to fall 4.5% over the course of 2023, dipping below pre-pandemic shares, in the major developed economies.1
- trading down & shopping around - high food prices driving grocery shoppers to make 31% more trips and spend roughly 9% less per visit than they did in 2019.2
- prices & preferences - slower inflation in 2023 to narrow the gap in discretionary spending between high- and low-income households, which ran at 2:1 for our global aggregate in 2022.
- shocks & omnichannel - omnichannel outperformed in-person only restaurants by 31% during lockdowns and continue to see a boost, as well as getting 'insurance' for future disruptions.3