Published: December 09, 2024 Download

The global economy has admirably navigated through a series of shocks over the past few years. With inflation nearly back on track across many economies and central banks recalibrating policy, the Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) believes it is time for the economy to shift gears once again. MEI expects the global economy in 2025 to be defined by shifts in monetary policy, fiscal policy and a move toward equilibrium rates for growth and inflation. Here are the key economic forecasts for 2025:

While there is a common narrative around the world, it is crucial to recognize the important nuances by region and country. Our regional sections highlight these differences.

We also explore a few key themes shaping the 2025 global economy, leveraging Mastercard’s aggregated and anonymized data to provide a unique perspective. This includes cyclical changes – such as shifts in consumption as central banks lower rates or how consumers respond to price level changes – and structural changes, like the impact of migration on capital flows or workplace flexibility driving greater female workforce engagement. Finally, MEI addresses how trade policy will influence relative prices worldwide.

Mastercard Economics Institute 2025 forecasts by market

Notes: estimates are % change of annual average, color indicates variance above (green) and below (orange) an estimate of long-run growth.

Source: Mastercard Economics Institute for economies in our research coverage and IMF for rest. Long-run estimates from IMF and Oxford.

Map Source: Natural earth and highcharts

The boundaries and names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by Mastercard Economics Institute.

Global themes