Since its onset, the pandemic has fogged the global view of what’s to come. In the Mastercard Economics Institute’s 2022 economic outlook, we think the path forward will come into sharper focus. At the heart of this is how recent trends—increased household savings, supply chain disruption and the growth of spending on goods vs. services, digital everything, and risks related to the pandemic, inflation and climate change—will come together and shape the ongoing recovery. Below are the key takeaways from our report:
- Consumer spending of built-up savings could contribute at least 3 percentage points to global GDP growth in 2022.
- A record-breaking 27-year rewind in the household spending shift from goods to services rotates back – already 6 percentage points below the peak.
- 20% of the digital shift in retail stays put-reshaping how and what consumers buy.
- Leisure travel recovery continues as international travel opens up, with medium- and long-haul flights set to gain ground in 2022.
- Risks remain with the potential to disrupt the global economy.
Notwithstanding the clear and apparent risks, it is against the backdrop of tremendous progress in 2021 — economic growth, vaccine advances, and the accelerated digital transformations – that we anticipate strong consumer demand and the reemergence of the experience economy in 2022.